The crude price is just shy of a bear market, as China and U.S. PMI gauges are pointing to a stagnated recession. Unemployment is still at all time lows, with weakness in the job market beginning to set in. Evident of the billions $ in 2020 pandemic stimulus drying up. Geopolitical issues have been 'managed' at this point in time, but could snap back at anypoint.

The oil price is just shy of a bear market, falling over 8% since August 30th, please refer to the above chart with price notes. The broader Middle East conflict has not materialized with what looks like 'backdoor' oil diplomacy, I am speculating here, but there were rumours that Iran was pleaded to by U.S. State Officials with a 'deal' (or threatened), not to retaliatory strike Israel.  Hence the oil price remaining below its 2 month average of $74 per barrel.

Regardless of the geopolitical, the global economy is entering a stagnated recession, with employment rates relatively high (but looking fragil).  Which points to 2020 pandemic stimulus yet to completely drain out of the global economy.  Hence the oil price sell offs, as a precursor to a fall in global PMIs, a slowing job market and falling oil demand.